The increase in PKK violence, which has resulted in dozens of deaths, and widespread anger, has brought the government to a difficult crossroads. Should Turkey take the PKK’s bait and launch a unilateral military incursion or should they sit tight and continue efforts through diplomacy and dialogue? If we were to turn the clock back 10 years, I have no doubt Turkish soldiers would already be scrambling through the Kandil Mountains, but much has changed and Turkey has slowly started to adopt a more proactive rather than traditional reactive stance in its foreign policy.

The only party that would gain from an intervention would be the PKK. In the short term the government would receive plaudits from the public but in the long term nothing will be won. The chances of such an operation having a considerable impact on the PKK are low and the body bags would still come, leaving Turkey no nearer to solving this issue and with fewer options. Innocent lives would be lost and Turkey would further isolate itself.

This government has made good progress in its relations with its own Kurdish citizens. As the results of the July parliamentary elections demonstrated, Ankara has begun to gain the trust of the Kurds with the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) doing incredibly well in Kurdish regions (54 percent of the vote). Abdullah Gül’s election as president was also well received by the Kurds. This AK Party power monopoly scares the PKK, which sees its influence beginning to seep away. The PKK much preferred the days of hardliners and nationalists who considered any type of engagement or negotiation with the Iraqi Kurdish leadership as treachery. Provoking Turkey into a cross-border operation will end any hope for dialogue.

The government must demonstrate that it is progressive and has learned from the past. It is clear that if the PKK issue was going to be won with military strength Turkey would have defeated these terrorists two decades ago. Military action should always be an absolute last option and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan must stand tall and not crack under pressure from the opposition, public and military. In light of the recent decision by the US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs to approve the Armenian genocide resolution Turkey must also resist the temptation to take revenge on the United States by deliberately ignoring their requests not to enter northern Iraq.

The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq led by Massoud Barzani should not want to see the region further destabilized -- Ankara does not recognize the KRG even though its status is legal as per the Iraqi Constitution. The Kurdish area is the only success story in Iraq with foreign investment beginning to flow in (much of it from Turkey). There is already trouble with Iran with the Iranian army massed at the border shelling the region following attacks by the anti-Iranian Kurdish Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan (PJAK) also hiding out in the Kandil Mountains -- on Iran. Maintaining stability and peace should be a priority for the KRG but they claim there is little they can do about these radical groups. Not only are the PKK and PJAK hardened guerilla fighters in formidable terrain, but the Iraqi Kurds’ own security forces are stretched pretty thin keeping their territory safe from Arab terrorists in the rest of the country. Furthermore, accusations have been made asserting that Barzani and the US military have been supplying arms to the PKK which has further angered Turkey.

Although Barzani has never openly supported the PKK and is not a pan-Kurdish nationalist, he has a turbulent relationship with Ankara. In the past he has assisted Turkish operations against the PKK but recently tensions have risen in relation to the disputed status of the city of Kirkuk and its surrounding oil fields. Iraqi Kurds consider Kirkuk -- which is currently under control of Baghdad -- to have been stolen from them during the Baathist ethnic-cleansing campaign in the 1980s. The Kurds have made the return of Kirkuk a central precondition to their participation in a federal Iraq and a referendum is due to take place on the status in the near future. Turkey is opposed to Kirkuk falling into Kurdish hands. Barzani may be looking for ways to corner Turkey into eventually recognizing an independent Kurdistan -- something Ankara has always profoundly opposed which is why he has been less then helpful vis-à-vis the PKK. Nevertheless, Baghdad, which recently signed an anti-terrorism deal with Ankara, should honor its commitment to the Turks. Iraqi President Jalal Talabani -- also a Kurd -- has the capacity to put more pressure on Barzani if he really wishes.

Prime Minister Erdoğan also has economic cards to play and could choose to cut electricity to the North or close the vital Habur border gate. His decision will have massive consequences. Erdoğan should remember what the role of being prime minister entails. It is not a popularity contest but rather it is to take decisions for your country that may not seem popular at the time, but will one day be seen as decisions that positively shaped the future of the country. He needs to be brave.

AMANDA AKCAKOCA * Zaman