It is true that the PKK sometimes threatens the internal peace of Turkey. The developments in Kirkuk and the envisaged referendum are important in this regard. In other words, both issues deserve attention and are thus not unimportant. However, it is also worth questioning, now that a military intervention is on the horizon, whether the two justifications are persuasive enough for Turkey to conduct an operation into northern Iraq. Iraq has, so to say, turned into an inferno claiming hundreds of lives every day and where incessant internal strife and violence never cease to cripple daily life. We must hereby not forget to mention that neither the PKK presence in the Kandil Mountains nor the persisting Kirkuk matter are forcing Turkey into such a military intervention; in fact both matters can be resolved through other paths and the use of other instruments.

For now we’ll settle for a short account of the heavy cost a possible intervention would bring upon Turkey’s shoulders:

1) It is as clear as day that the United States has failed to shape Iraq using military force; none of the groups is content with the American presence in the country but the Kurds. The stance of the Shiites is no different in terms of content. We will all see what sort of position change the Shiites -- who have been keeping a low profile thinking that an American intervention in Iran would end the occupation of Iraq -- will embark on.
2) Turkey must not make a similar mistake. Iraq and the entire region can never be shaped by the United States or any other force. Of course Turkey could; but it can also succeed by resorting to other methods. This implies that the US attempt to implement what it was unable to succeed in in Iraq over Turkey will bring great costs upon Turkey and the region.

3) Democracy in Turkey is a fragile regime. It was interrupted four times in the last century (May 27, 1960, March 12, 1970, Sept. 12, 1980 and Feb. 28, 1997). A military intervention could render the democratic regime even more fragile; basic rights and freedoms will inevitably be replaced by “security concerns.”

4) Turkey’s economic status is as fragile as its democratic regime. The foreign trade deficit, internal and external debt and ongoing problems in the real economy (inequity in income distribution, unemployment and narrowing employment areas) will get even larger. Willingly or unwillingly, a military intervention will demand the allocation of economic resources greater than usual for military and defense expenses.

{josquote}5) It is unthinkable that the separate groups in Iraq -- the Sunni Arabs, the Shiite Arabs, or Kurds -- will welcome Turkish troops with flowers in hand. Turkey will inevitably have to risk engaging in conflicts with all of them, and this in return will create a rift between Turkey and Arabs and Kurds, a rift that could last for centuries.{/josquote} 

6) As a final assessment, we cannot think that the countries in the region will see Turkey’s intervention through rose-colored glasses. In fact we might even run the risk of discord and disagreements with Syria and Iran, who are deeply troubled by the United Stated these days. These discords and disagreements with Iran and Syria, with whom we now have good neighborly relations, could even lead to war in the long run. 7) Consequently, it is possible to say that Turkey’s internal social peace will be put at stake, with more serious problems to follow as a result.