PKK terrorists, given the uncertainties involved. The Armenian resolution has also to be voted on in the House itself in order to be adopted. So the game is not over yet. As for an incursion into northern Iraq, the possibility that this will backfire on Turkey, politically if not militarily, is a real one. But it is also a fact that once agitated a country is capable of doing rash things. The United States is the best example of this given the way it went into Iraq, ostensibly to combat Islamic terrorism after Sept. 11 (and with quite a lot of public support one must add), only to find itself entrenched in what is increasingly becoming a nightmare for it. The Erdoğan government is however under great pressure on both issues. If we look at the Armenian resolution first, the government is captive to its own rhetoric, having said time and time again at the highest levels that if this resolution is adopted Turkish-US relations will suffer seriously. Put another way, if the government is not seen by the public to be acting in line with this sentiment then what will be harmed, if not Turkish-U.S. relations, will be the government's own credibility and political support. This is something that the opposition, and all those forces that are against the AKP, would be more than happy to see of course, which is a fact that merely increases the pressure on Prime Minister Erdoğan. This is why the statement by Representative Brad Sherman of California, who is an avid supporter of the Armenian resolution, to the effect that “(Washington) will get a few angry words out of Ankara for a few days, and then it's over” will, as far as the government is concerned, have to be proven wrong if it is not to be harmed politically. But, as pointed out above, the resolution has to be passed by the House of Representatives and is yet to be adopted, and it also remains to be seen if reason will prevail in the meantime in the U.S. Congress, although there is little reason to be optimistic over this.

As for the matter of a cross-border operation, it is clear that this has also become much more complicated now, since it is known that Washington is opposed to such a step. After recent PKK attacks the public is clamoring for something to be done and the government clearly has to take notice of this.

The image problem of the US:

The problem is that the U.S. is seen by the public, and by quite a few ranking military officials, as not only emboldening the PKK in northern Iraq, but also supplying it with arms after members of the terrorist group were caught with American weapons. In other words a cross-border operation has now taken on the added meaning of not only going after the PKK, but also “showing the Americans that Turkey will do what it will regardless of what Washington says,” especially since so few Turks see America as a friendly country anyway. This perception, which was increasing over the PKK issue anyway, has now taken a quantum leap forward with the Armenian resolution, and so the desire to see an incursion into northern Iraq has increased since such a step will represent an added act of defiance against America. There are of course Turkish officials who now believe that Washington will have less words of objection to such an operation by Turkey, in order to try and correct the situation that has arisen after this resolution, and in order not to endanger the broader interest. This of course remains to be seen, as does the steps that the Erdoğan government will take in retaliation over the Armenian genocide resolution. All of this however puts a darker shroud of doubt over Washington's recently expressed desire to revive strategic relations with Turkey. In fact quite the opposite is happening and we appear only a few steps away from a free-fall in these relations. In short the downward spiral in Turkish-American relations has gained added momentum due to shortsighted politicians in Washington.

Semih İDİZ