However, she didn’t say what common and concrete steps to smash the “common enemy” would be taken. The subject of possible measures against the PKK was also on the agenda of the expanded ministerial meeting of Iraq’s neighbors that took place in İstanbul on Saturday. Will the Bush-Erdoğan meeting on Monday yield a permanent solution?

Saying that a possible cross-border operation wouldn’t be an invasion but rather an incursion aimed solely at bases of the PKK, Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan explained the limits of the operation in the meetings with his colleagues. If the actions under consideration come to pass, it will most likely be with the cognizance and approval of Iraq and the US.

The need to carefully draw the limits of Turkey’s possible cross-border operation stems from the possibility that Turkey’s actions will trigger a shift in the Middle East’s balance of power. The Arab governments are generally afraid that Turkey’s operation may expand to include even Baghdad. Some governments worry that Turkey, having become a regional power, actually plans to permanently enter Iraq and the Arab world and strengthen its claims on the oil reserves located in northern Iraq. Essentially, they fear that Turkey intends to use the PKK as an excuse to return to the Middle East with the spirit of the Ottoman Empire. But of course, it is Washington that is using the Arab states as a means of putting pressure on Ankara. Washington, which has permanent influence on the Arab world, is trying to narrow the scope of the operation as much as possible

During the course of history, Iraq has been the center of the power struggle between Shiite Iran and Sunni Anatolia (the Seljuk and the Ottoman states, in turn). It has also has marked the border region between the eastern Mediterranean countries and Iran. Will this historical balance, frayed by the intervention of the US, be restored with the intervention of Turkey? Or will it disappear entirely?

The common nightmare of the US, Israel and the Arab world is that Iran would come to dominate Iraq and the Middle East after a Turkish operation into northern Iraq. They believe that Turkey’s incursion into Iraq from the north may encourage Iran to enter from the south. Such a scenario would lead to the emergence of a Shiite state in southern Iraq. Even temporary cooperation between Turkey and Iran would be able to shift the balance in favor of Iran. Furthermore, should Turkey expand its operation and fight against Barzani’s peshmerga forces, Barzani may have to bring forces from southern Iraq to the north as reinforcements. This situation would strengthen Al-Qaeda and the Shiites in southern Iraq. The US, Israel and the Arab world are both afraid that the emergence of a Shiite government in southern Iraq would incite administration changes in the Gulf states with significant Shiite populations. Moreover, together with an Alevi administration in Syria and a strong Hezbullah in Lebanon, the emergence of a Shiite arc stretching around the eastern Mediterranean is a possible development.

Looking at Iraq from the perspective of the US, one can see war and oil. Looking through the eyes of the Arab world one can see the fragility of the Arab geopolitical landscape. However, looking from Turkey, the inheritor of the Ottoman Empire, which ruled the region for nearly 500 years (1534-1917) the only thing we can see is terror and inconsistency. Hence, placing too many limits on Turkey’s operation would only cause the problems to shift, and this will serve no one’s interests. An overly limited operation into northern Iraq may cause scorching heat in Iraq by the summer of 2008.

HASAN KANBOLAT